Johannesburg— The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, with African economies bracing for a fresh round of inflationary pressure and fiscal strain. Analysts warn that the continent’s long-term resilience is being tested by a convergence of geopolitical risk, rising fuel costs, and persistent supply chain vulnerabilities.

Brent crude prices surged past $74 per barrel following U.S.-backed Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, reversing earlier forecasts of fuel price cuts across several African markets. In South Africa, the Central Energy Fund now projects a petrol price hike of 18 cents per litre and a 25-cent increase in diesel for July, a sharp turnaround from previous expectations.

“The Middle East remains a critical artery for global oil supply. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have cascading effects on African economies, particularly those heavily reliant on fuel imports,” said Sanisha Packirisamy, chief economist at Momentum Investments.

The rand has already weakened against the dollar, compounding inflationary risks. Economists caution that sustained volatility could force central banks across the continent to maintain elevated interest rates, stifling growth and investment.

Beyond the immediate macroeconomic impact, experts are calling for a strategic pivot. “Africa must accelerate efforts to build internal buffers—diversifying energy sources, strengthening regional trade, and investing in infrastructure that reduces exposure to external shocks,” said Dr. Benjamin Rapanyane, a senior political lecturer at North-West University.

While OPEC’s spare capacity may cushion some of the global supply shortfall, the broader implications for Africa’s development agenda are sobering. “This is a wake-up call,” said political analyst Roland Henwood. “The continent cannot afford to be a passive observer in global crises. Resilience must be built, not assumed.”